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We now have the tools, technology and data to take incubators and developers to the next level. Organizations can prove their worth and validate their ideas by demonstrating to investors that there is a repeatable and scalable business model. And we can provide metrics for investors to play the game of Moneyball – with Levels of Investment Preparation.
We have spent the last 3 years building our methodology, classroom, developer and software and have tested it on ~500 startup teams.
We focus on evidence and trends in the business process. The days of the flash demo are great theater, but it’s not clear that there’s a connection between giving a great PowerPoint presentation and a two-minute demo and building a solid business plan. Instead of demo product – we believe in “Learning Demo”. We had our “Lessons Learned” days showing what the team was all about
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“Learning Lessons” days allow us to assess the team’s ability to learn, play and progress. Based on our “lessons learned” we develop an Investment Plan Rating Scale that can be used as part of a “go” or “no-go” decision for a fund.
NASA and the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) In the 1970s/80s NASA needed a common method to compare the maturity and flight readiness status of technology projects. They received a 9-step explanation of technical work preparation. He then arranged these 9 levels into a thermometer.
The important thing to note is that TRL is not perfect. It’s a physical thing. It is not complete. But this is a big leap from what was used in the past. Before there was no common language to describe the activities.
TRL solves a big problem – it’s a simple and visual way to share common understanding about the state of technology. The U.S. Air Force, then the Army and the entire U.S. Department of Defense along with the European Space Agency (ESA) have all adopted TRL for complex missions. As simple as it is, TRL is used to manage funds and go/no decisions for complex programs around the world.
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We suggest that we can do this for new companies – providing a simple and visual way to show a complete understanding of the status of the startup programs. This is called the Investment Preparation stage.
Investment Readiness Level (IRL) The collective wisdom of investors (including angel investors, and venture capitalists) over the last decade has been subjective. Investment decisions based on “weird aspects”, “we were blown away by the demo”, or “the great team” are used to measure startups. This is 20
generation left the lack of information available from each group and the lack of comparability of information in groups and files.
Hypothesis testing and data collection We developed startup tools in the Lean LaunchPad classroom and the NSF I-Corps incubator using LaunchPad Central to collect a continuous stream of data across organizations. Over 10 weeks each team goes out and talks to 100 customers. And they test hypotheses in all 9 boxes on the business model diagram.
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We compile this data into a Dashboard (shown in the image below) giving incubator/accelerator managers a single dashboard to see the collective progress of the organization. The metrics that can be seen at a glance are the number of customer inquiries in the current week and total inquiries, hypotheses to be tested, negative hypotheses, mentor and teacher engagement. This information provides a sense of the evidence and the state of the organization as a whole as well as a general view of the progress of each organization.
Next, we have each team update the Business Model Canvas weekly based on the 10+ customer surveys we’ve completed.
Canvas updates are driven by 10+ customer inquiries per week per team. Organizations document every customer interaction in a Discovery Story. These interactions provide feedback and validate or invalidate any hypothesis.
Above the diagram is an Activity Chart showing which hypotheses are being tested and which are validated or invalidated.
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All of this information is digested in the Scorecard, a real Kanban board that allows the team to visualize the work to be done, the work being done and the work being done for all nine areas of the business model diagram.
MoneyBall At first this ad system is ridiculous. A successful startup is all about the team. Neither the founder, nor the product, nor the market – there are no standards that can measure anything that is not real.
Baseball used to agree with that as well. Until 2002 – when the Oakland A’s baseball team took advantage of the metric analysis of player performance to determine successful teams and contenders.
Statistical analysis shows that on-base percentage and slugging percentage are the best indicators of offensive success, and the A’s believe that these attributes are cheaper to market than more historical attributes like speed and number. This observation often flies in the face of conventional baseball wisdom and the beliefs of many baseball players and administrators.
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By rethinking the strategy that led to success on the field, the 2002 Oakland A’s spent $41 million in payroll, and they were competing with the New York Yankees, who spent $125 million.
Our claim is that Lean Startup + Evidence-based Business + LaunchPad Central Software now enables incubators and developers to have an efficient information system between organizations. Although it does not eliminate the good judgment of investors, the skill of modeling and guidance – it gives you the option to play Moneyball.
Last September Andy Sack, Jerry Engel and I taught our first stealth class for incubator/accelerator managers who want to learn how to play Moneyball.
It is not clear that there is a relationship between a
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